星期一, 七月 16, 2007

给天堂有路兄说chart pattern

路过,多嘴, 开贴,找苦。

天堂有路网友,你好:你有好师父糊涂兄教还不好好学,不然也可请教 tekyong,tomteohyk,trex,乔帮主,或前辈如 papaya,何老大,chinchai大兄, harimau。。。(太多高手了)指点两招。


如真的要要学TA,我所认识的,又有在中文论坛出现的有以下几位


排名不分先后
gibson Ong(为人尽心尽力,技术出神入化)
the chargingBull(配合时事出击一流)
psrngurney(对量的掌控对策有一套)
adrian86(对swing/rollover有研究)
DON(对图的敏感度足)
waltermelon(师父中的师父),但神出鬼没。

我只能给你笼统的意见,实不想有一天害你举债投机买股票。

2)

天堂有路网友,你好。地狱无门你要闯进来, 我只有尽所知说说一二。

你如果还没看过杨百万的访谈,立刻去看,看了还是要买股票,

请听在下说几句:

1)在牛市里,好股买少见少,多数的valuation都已经projection到2008,2009,太过离普。所以我觉得应该先学投机,而且运用你所掌握的知识,试验性买入一只股,看看是否如你所愿。不停修改,不停做记录(这方面psrngurney做得最多,可以请教他)。我每一宗买入,卖出都写下原因。输钱(输多输少)赚钱(赚多赚少)都要不停的写,写到你终于找到窍门了。要学甚麽投机法呢?你可以向少林兄请教箱型投资法,可以去学candlesticks,moving average,rsi啦,多得数不清。

我有幸遇到贵人学了Dan Zanger的chart pattern


3)万变不离其宗。。。量

chart pattern 看起来很简单。。。每个股都开起来看,可以用candlestick,可以用线,更容易的是用yahoo的chart来 superimpose,就可以看到完全一样或非常接近的chart pattern。买入不就赚大钱了吗?

不对不对。

量还是最重要的。如何充分掌握量的分布呢?(这里又是要请教psrngurney兄了)

先去bursa看看大股东的巴仙率,看到最详细的。。。要注意基金及pledged securities多数都不会卖或在一些时候才会卖(如年终/尾/度假前,也要注意买入的价),扣东扣西,剩下的就是可能流通/买卖的股票。这里很多学问,我还学不会。

然后,做一些volume average 100/50/20/10天的功课,知道甚麽时候量会放大,放小,之后是起还是跌。

星期六, 七月 07, 2007

KOTRA moving to Main board

Higher profile
By ERROL OH
errol@thestar.com.my
KOTRA Industries Bhd managing director Jimmy Piong has no qualms admitting that over the years, he has made his fair share of mistakes and wrong assumptions when running the Mesdaq-listed pharmaceutical manufacturer. But that also means that he and the rest of the company's management have learnt a lot in the process.

Now that Kotra is in the midst of transformation, all those lessons may prove valuable in keeping the company on course towards its goal of becoming a world-class player.
The most visible and immediate adjustment is scheduled to happen this week. After completing a six-for-five bonus issue, Malacca-based Kotra will transfer to the main board. When it was listed in October 2000, it became the third Mesdaq counter at a time when Mesdaq was a fledgling exchange that struggled to gain acceptance.

We earn market share by establishing trust via predictability, service, and innovation, says PiongAs with all graduations to the main board, the rationale is to enhance recognition and reputation among investors and business associates. At the same time, a move to the main board can be construed as sign that the company is ready to aim for bigger things. That is certainly the case with Kotra.

Says Piong: “We're going through a wholesale change – in terms of human resource, capacity, systems. The entire company infrastructure is being realigned so that we can become an international player.”

For example, in recent times, the company has recruited key executives, including those who have senior-level experience at multinational pharmaceutical companies, to beef up the talent in areas such as research and development, marketing and exports.

“We have one of the best teams (in the pharmaceutical industry) in the country. We now have the soft skills, the human skills, to do what we want to do,” says Piong.

At the top of the agenda is the plan to significantly broaden its product range and market presence so that it can grab a big slice of the generic drugs business. The idea is for Kotra to be the industry's equivalent of a supermarket, but Piong prefers the term “Harrods for pharmaceutical products”.

He adds, “I want a situation where it's enough for a doctor to deal with just Kotra. The aim is to have at least one product for every segment, to provide a one-stop centre for our customers.”
Kotra has almost 170 products registered with the National Pharmaceutical Controls Board. The over-the-counter (OTC) business has always been the mainstay of the company, but its branded generic products (which are dispensed with prescriptions) are growing in significance.
In FY02, generics accounted for 13% of Kotra's turnover. The contribution more than doubled to 28% in FY06.

Piong says this reflects the company's efforts to widen its revenue base. “The generics business is more resilient and recurrent. Also, the manufacturing of generics is more sophisticated and that helps us climb up the value chain,” he explains.

The term “generics” may suggest that consumers are not too bothered about brands when it comes to such products and that they tend to opt for the lowest-priced ones, but Piong believes that there is room for Kotra to establish an edge.

He says, “We don't believe in competing on price; our products are not the cheapest. We focus on strategic positioning. We earn market share by establishing trust via predictability, service and innovation.”

Kotra subscribes to the power of branding. It should know. After all, the Appeton name is among the company's biggest assets and is recognised outside Malaysia as well. Appeton began in 1989 as a single product, that is, a tonic to help children gain weight, but it is now an umbrella brand for Kotra's health supplements.

However, it was not at all an overnight triumph. “It took us many, many years to establish the brand. The first 10 years was a lot of trial and error. It taught us about how to be more prudent and more resistant to slip-ups,” Piong recalls.

“Advertising was a luxury back then. Most of the money went towards infrastructure and assets. The turning point was when we had sufficient funds to spend on advertising and promotions. Without brand-building, you cannot be somebody.”

Nevertheless, there is also the question of backing up the brand promise. “You can't have the branding and advertising without good products and innovation,” Piong points out, adding that emphasis on research and development is part of Kotra's game plan.

Also, he says, a sturdy and wide distribution network must be in place. He adds that Kotra has an advantage because it distributes its own products, thus giving it control and access to customer information.

Kotra also plans to penetrate overseas markets aggressively. It already has its products in 11 countries, and the next targets are Kuwait, Thailand and the Philippines. Piong says the company intends to go into 12 other countries and the introduction of the products is in various stages of submission, registration and approvals.

He adds that exporting pharmaceutical products is a complex matter because of the different regulatory frameworks and market conditions.

“It's a very tricky thing. Many people have failed when they ventured abroad. The challenge is not to bulldoze your way through. Our export business will not be driven by our representatives in the foreign countries. It will be driven by our head office,” he explains.

“You really have to get involved in market development. It takes a longer time to see results but it's worth it. We don't just export our products; we provide our marketing expertise as well.”
Another major project for Kotra is a new factory in Malacca that will be built in three phases, and will axpand Kotra's current capacity by up to 10 times. The first phase will cost about RM65mil, including for the machinery. The plant is expected to commence operations in the beginning of FY09.

Piong says it will be the most modern pharmaceutical production facility in the country. “The whole idea is to build a centre of manufacturing excellence,” he adds

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