星期二, 十一月 01, 2016

冷眼孙子战市系列1:股市创富靠孙子(上篇)

原文孙子曰:凡为客之道,深入则专,主人不克,掠于饶野,三军足食,谨养而勿劳,并气积力,运兵计谋,为不可测。(孙子兵法“九地篇”)。

白话译文孙子说:一般上,出兵攻打异国,军队若深入敌境,士卒深知除非战胜敌人,就不能生还,所以深入敌境的军队,斗志都非常专一,锐不可当,“主”国的军队,都无法战胜客军。军队在占领敌国之后,就强征当地的粮食,作为军粮,使全军粮食充足,这样军队就可以得到完全的休整,军队不疲惫,然后激励士气,养精蓄锐,将领就可以部署兵力,以“攻其无备,出其不意”的谋略,击败敌人。

孙子兵法中,适用于股票投资的战略,俯拾即是,投资者只要善于利用,必有助于股市致胜。

以上所引这一段话,就是一个典型的例子。

我们到别人家里去,或是到陌生的地方去居留,叫做“作客”,例如“作客他乡”,就是到别的地方去暂住,故酒店被称为“客栈”是有道理的。

由于孙子兵法所讲的,是打仗的道理,故“凡为客之道”,“凡”是指一般上“道”是指作战方法。军队在陌生的外国作战的方法。

大部分股市的散户,都有本身固定的职业或事业,股票投资不是他们的本业,对他们来说,进入股市,就是进入一个陌生的领域“作客”,就好像军队开进异国去打仗一样。

孙子曾说过“去国越境而师者,绝地也(九地篇)就是离开自己的国家,越过国界,进入别的国家作战,(师指用兵打仗),其实是进入了“绝地”,绝地又叫死地,就是无路可走的地方,除非舍命杀敌,否则,就是死路一条。

故孙子说“疾战则存,不疾战则亡者,死地也”(九地篇)散户血汗钱投入一个完全陌生的领域,就好像军队开进一个完全陌生的地方,跟对地形了如指掌的当地军队作战,其实是进入“绝地”,是非常危险的事,照理应该慎重其事,在作出充分的准备之后,才作出投资才对,然而我们所看到的情形刚好相反,散户在毫无准备的情况下,就进入股市搏杀,视股市为快速致富之道,这种草率的行为,使他们在股市屡战屡败。

深入则专无往不利

那么,什么是散户的“为客之道”?孙子已经告诉我们了,那就是“深入则专”。

对军队来说,“深入则专”是指深入敌境,则士卒的心态自然就专注于杀敌,因为他们已没有回头路,除非击败敌人,就不可能活着回国。散户如果以“玩票”的心态投资股票,就不会认真对待股票投资,对于买股票,草率从事,这样,出错的概率奇高,投资失败,一点也不奇怪。

正确的做法,是“专”,能专注于股票投资,才能对股市和股票,有“深入”的认识,每一个行业,都有其独特的窍门,要精通其窍门,除了长期专注研究及体察之外,别无他途。股票投资是科学与艺术的综合体,所涉及的领域,从经济到投资心理,千丝万缕,错综複杂,即使专注,也未必能精通,如果抱着“玩”的心态,对股票研究一曝十寒,要了解个中窍门,简直是缘木求鱼,根本是不可能做到的事。

星期二, 十月 11, 2016

Top Glove see posting flat or marginal 4QFy16 results

 
This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on October 11, 2016.
Top Glove Corp Bhd
(Oct 10, RM4.83)
Downgrade to hold from buy with a lower target price of RM4.91 from RM5.27:
Top Glove Corp Bhd is set to release its fourth quarter financial year 2016 (4QFY16) results tomorrow.
We expect the results to be either flat or marginal quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), in the region of RM60 million to RM65 million, bringing full-year earnings to between RM353 million and RM358 million, in line with our full-year forecast of RM354 million, but falling short of the consensus estimate by 5% to 6%.

The flat or marginal q-o-q improvement in earnings is on the back of a slight recovery in average selling prices (ASPs) of 3% to 5%, but offset by rising production cost and the minimum wage hike from RM900 to RM1,000 per month.

Despite its 4QFY16 results potentially matching our expectations, we adjust our FY17 and FY18 earnings downwards by 7%, in view of a recovery in ASPs in a more gradual manner due to pricing competition, rising production cost and its exceptionally high earnings in the first half of FY16 due to a surge in US dollar value. Its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation margin is expected to normalise to the 15% to 16% level.

The average latex price has also climbed up recently, from RM4.20 to RM4.60 per kg, while the average nitrile price remains stable at below US$1 (RM4.15) per kg. We expect latex prices to stay at this level.

We have factored in RM4.06 per US dollar and RM4 per US dollar in our FY16 and FY17 assumptions.

Its F27 Lukut plant will be fully commissioned in November 2016, with an additional two billion new production capacity for nitrile butadiene rubber gloves. Total capacity is expected to increase by 14% in FY17, after inclusion of the partially commissioned F30 factory.

Key risks to the expansion plan include difficulty in securing foreign workers. Other risks are further reduction in ASPs amid steep competition, a surge in nitrile and latex prices, as well as a weaker US dollar against the ringgit. — Hong Leong Investment Bank Research, Oct 10

由于医疗工作的关系,还曾帮过医院采购,与手套股结缘是很久很久以前的事了,可惜当年投资心态不正确,买进卖出,白白错过了开多多番的机会。

真的是学乖了。学乖就看到钱钱钱了。

处惊不变的前提是你要做功课,做对的功课,除了不时后顾,也要主动前瞻。

星期四, 九月 08, 2016

CENTURY LOGISTICS suspended with annouchment of directors exiting the company,why?????

OTHERS CENTURY LOGISTICS HOLDINGS BERHAD - NOTIFICATION OF DISPOSAL OF 31.44% OF THE ENTIRE ISSUED SHARE CAPITAL OF CENTURY LOGISTICS HOLDINGS BERHAD TO CJ KOREA EXPRESS ASIA PTE. LTD.

CENTURY LOGISTICS HOLDINGS BERHAD


TypeAnnouncement
SubjectOTHERS
Description
CENTURY LOGISTICS HOLDINGS BERHAD - NOTIFICATION OF DISPOSAL OF 31.44% OF THE ENTIRE ISSUED SHARE CAPITAL OF CENTURY LOGISTICS HOLDINGS BERHAD TO CJ KOREA EXPRESS ASIA PTE. LTD.
The Board of Directors of Century Logistics Holdings Berhad (“Board”) wishes to announce that the Board was informed that Datuk Phua Sin Mo, Datin Lee Lay Hun, Pamela Phua Jo Lyn and Chai Mee Young (collectively, the “Vendors”) have entered into a Conditional Sale and Purchase Agreement (“SPA”) with CJ Korea Express Asia Pte. Ltd. (“Purchaser”) for the proposed disposal of 120,544,236 issued and fully paid ordinary shares in the Company representing approximately 31.44% of its entire issued share capital (each a “Sale Share” and together, the “Sale Shares”) by the Vendors to the Purchaser, at a disposal price of RM1.45 per Sale Share to be fully satisfied via cash consideration (“Proposed Disposal”).

The Board was further informed that the Proposed Disposal is:

  1. conditional upon the fulfilment of the conditions precedent set out in the SPA (collectively, the “Conditions Precedent”) and the Conditions Precedent are expected to be fulfilled on or before 31 October 2016; and
  2. expected to be completed on 31 October 2016.
Upon completion of the Proposed Disposal, the Company will make the necessary announcements in accordance to the listing requirements and the Companies Act, 1965.
This announcement is dated 8 September 2016.

吓到!,我只有10000 at 80 cents
不要吓我啦,我难得有时间看股!

星期五, 九月 02, 2016

2.9.2016 我的投资观

不奢望捞底

前阵子以为可以捞底,一买就跌了。

如果是很多很多很多(非常重要,所以要讲三次)年以前也许就慌了,睡不好吃不好,分分

钟看着电脑,准备随时斩斩斩,cut loss 去也!

可是近十年来买了跌个10%的最多是又看回报告(怎样看?),有时也不看(因为昨晚已看了),搜一下世界有什么大事发生了,trend change了吗?多数时候都没做决定。

我多数下午才有时间看看股市,很多时候跌了也不知道,又起回了。

也不奋身再买进,人老了(有经验了),不冲了,可以等等看看。

我的经验是:捞底是捞不到的,也从来没奢望捞到!最多是近、很近、非常近底,3 到5%左右吧!

有时候买了跌还是会问问自己:傻了,大市在跌,也不等等,买低一分钱,1000股就是十块钱了。

怕就怕你等呀等,等不到心水价,就起了。

只在脑里想这想那,没有行动是无法在股市生存的!







星期三, 八月 03, 2016

3.8.2016 我的投资观

投资股票久了的朋友应该都会摸索到一个道理:

不盲目追高。

不奢望捞底。

高当然可以更高,你可以用一大堆的数据、指数、名人效应来支持自己追高,但钱的而确是

自己的,不是别人的,眼光准不准是很subjective的东西,今天准了,下回不见得就准。而且

大师也是凡人,也有失手的时候,如果整天翻大师N年前曾买过这股来支持自己连续深陷困

局,那真的是自找!

盲目跟随大师的脚步买卖是自寻苦吃的。

在股市是弱肉强食的,谁都没责任对谁负责。

看看近来的karex,VS, CSC Steel(刚好我都有,所以大声讲废话)就可明了一二了。

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