星期五, 二月 12, 2016

My biggest mistake in not selling --- Koon Yew Yin

My biggest mistake in not selling
 
As I said before, no share can go up or go down indefinitely for whatever reason. When it is up, you must sell some so that you have money to buy when it is down. My biggest mistake is that I fell in love with my shares so much that I did not sell when they were at their peak.
 
EGO: Ego is the root of my problem. I am so proud to have found shares that went up a few hundred per cent within a couple of years and if I sold them, I have less shares to boast.
 
GREED: Another problem I have is greed, which is one of the deadly sins. It can be a virtue or a vice. In the stock market, it encourages investors to work harder to find good stocks to buy and continue to buy but then we forget about selling. That is often one of my biggest mistakes.
 
From the several articles I have written and published, you would know that I have discovered Latitude, VS, Lii Hen and a few other stocks which have gone up a few hundred per cent in the last couple of years. But my big mistake is that I always find difficulty in selling. I fall in love with my discoveries and I did not sell more when their prices were peaking.
 
A few days ago I posted an article with the title “ Export manufacturers share prices dropped too much” where I said that due to the 3.5% strengthening of our Ringgit their share prices dropped too much. Most investors overreact to good or bad news.
 
The MYR per USD chart shows the average rate for the last 3 months was Rm 4.30 to one USD and the rate on 5th . Feb 2016 was Rm 4.15 to one USD, a 15 sen or 3.5% drop. Smart investors should be able to see that this 3.5% strengthening of our Ringgit should not cause the export manufacturers share prices to drop more about 20%. For example:
 
VS dropped from Rm 1.68 to Rm 1.32 a drop of 21%. Note 1st Q eps was 5.22 sen.
 
Focus Lumber dropped from Rm 3.02 to Rm 2.28 a drop of 25%.Note EPS for last 3 Q was 3.22, 7.8 and 9.35 sen respectively. It has no borrowing. Some of its cash saving is in US$.
 
Chin Well dropped from Rm 2.28 to Rm 1.84 a drop of 19%. Note 1st Q EPS was 6.07 sen.
 
Latitude dropped from Rm 8.05 to Rm 6.63, a drop of 18%. Note 1st Q EPS 28.95 sen. It has about Rm 200 million cash saving and some portion is in US$ deposit.
 
Lii Hen dropped from Rm 2.97 to Rm 2.35, a drop of 21%. Note EPS for last 3 Q were 6, 7, and 8.6 sen. It is cash rich and no borrowing.
 
If I had sold more when their prices were at or near their top, I would have a lot more cash to buy back when they subsequently dropped so much.
 
Last night, on Chinese New Year eve, Ooi Teik Bee rang me to seek my opinion regarding the strengthening of our Ringgit. He said that he has spoken to a highly respected investor who said that due to the bad publicity of our political situation, he thinks that our Ringgit will continue to be weak which is good for exporters.
 
I also agree that our Ringgit will continue to be weak and I foresee more foreign funds will come back to take advantage of our weak Ringgit.
 
Most investors have difficulty in selling. As I have learned a humble lesson in not selling, I hope this article will help you improve your investing skill to make more money.
 
I wish you a happy and prosperous Chines New Year.

星期五, 二月 05, 2016

雄才大略:少缴公积金非良策‧李治宏

雄才大略:少缴公积金非良策‧李治宏

 
不管是否需缴更多税,选择少缴雇员公积金,始终不是良策。
 
政府上周在公布调整2016年财政预算案时,宣布让雇员公积金会员可在今年3月至明年12月期间,每个月少缴3%公积金,以增加手头上的可支配收入,促进市场消费及提振国家经济。
 
此措施一出即引来各方热议,究竟该不该选择少缴3%公积金,还是维持现状(缴纳11%公积金),仍是许多打工族当下的热门话题。
 
话题进一步衍生到,月入6250或以下的公积金局会员,若选择少缴3%公积金,将须缴纳更多个人所得税。
 
税务专家以月薪4000令吉者为例,算出在扣除个人所得税9000令吉,及公积金与人寿保险合共最高6000令吉税务减免后,继续缴纳11%公积金者的可征税收入为3万1720令吉,而缴纳8%公积金者的可征税收入则是3万3160令吉。
 
结果,缴纳率11%者须缴纳336令吉的个人所得税,而8%者则是408令吉,差别为72令吉。
 
须培养长期储蓄
 
虽然专家也提醒,选择少缴3%公积金的打工族,每个月手上将有多出120令吉的收入可供使用,一年下来就有1440令吉,但笔者始终认为,此举并不划算。
 
首先,公积金始终是大马打工一族的养老金,现在每个月少缴3%公积金,好让手上多出一笔钱来用,跟“先洗未来钱”
 
没有两样,老来恐怕更加钱不够用。
 
根据公积金局早前的调查,70%会员在退休3至5年内即把公积金存款耗尽,如果现在为了贪图眼前多一笔钱可用的短期利益,牺牲长期的储蓄收入,无疑是拿石头丢自己的脚。
 
当然,专家会不认同我的看法,反而会一直以个人财务情况与需求来推说。
 
其次,每个月多出一笔钱来消费,如果我们善用这笔钱,那还好,最怕是花费在没有必要的物资上。
 
第三,虽说少缴3%公积金只是一年半载的短期措施,有人会认为对公积金的长期储蓄影响不大,但别忘了,我们必须培养“长期储蓄,中途不提款”的良好储蓄习惯,这也是一种纪律。
 
这就好比你进行任何储蓄,但中途一直存钱又提款,始终不比长期只存不拿,长期连本带利取得的收入来得好。
 
从政府的角度而言,其如意算盘是通过让国人少缴3%公积金的措施,让市场一年多出80亿令吉的现金流,借此来刺激市场消费与国家经济。
 
但别忘了,并非人人都会选择少缴3%公积金,好让手上多出一笔钱来进行消费。我不懂政府预算的80亿是如何推算,但要明显刺激经济,这如意算盘恐怕打不响。
李治宏 南洋商报副新闻编辑

左右摇摆的政府,你的部长都在劝我们填form拒绝你的政策,你知道你在做什麽吗?

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