BJTOTO 看看就好

刚好手头上有BJTOTO, BJCORP， 所以贴上来让读者看看，
看看就好，不是我做的功课。
想想也是很奇，bj corp 常常被炒来炒去，而且从1.00到1.47，起了够多了，
但基本因素好好的bjtoto很多时候无人问津，还是在4.30-4.40 的价位，
前些时还在4.2多排徊，
很长的时间要买低价都买得到，
就只怕你没钱，没信心。
但这样的市其实不能做什麽，
快跌慢跌都是跌，
没胆进出，没内幕是赚不了钱的，
（当然高手除外，但这市有几多个高手？）
只能看，看好好自己的心水股，
慢慢买进，费用不合算也没办法了，
谁叫你上了股市的瘾？
FROM ECM LIBRA
3QFY10 : Safety in numbers GAMING
• Within expectations
9MFY10 net profit of RM300.8m (-1% y-o-y) was within expectation at
77% of our full year estimate but below consensus at 72% of consensus
estimate. 9MFY10 revenue of RM2.5bn (-10% y-o-y) was within
expectation at 76% of our full year estimate. As expected, no dividends
were declared in the current quarter (3QFY09: 4.5 sen). Recall that
Berjaya Sports Toto (BST) prepaid 19 sen tax exempt DPS in 1QFY10.
• Lower prize payout neutralised lower revenue
9MFY10 net profit was relatively unchanged y-o-y although 9MFY10
revenue was 10% lower y-o-y as we estimate that the prize payout ratio
improved 2 ppts y-o-y to 63% (theoretical level: 61% to 62%). Lower
revenue y-o-y was due to the previous year benefiting from seasonally
higher Chinese New Year (CNY) sales in Jan 2009 (2010 CNY fell on Feb
or 4QFY10) and strong sales from Mega Toto 6/52 which had larger
jackpots then.
• Earnings have found a floor
3QFY10 net profit of RM97.9m was 1% higher y-o-y due to the
aforementioned reasons except that the estimated prize payout ratio
improved 4 ppts y-o-y instead to 63%. Sequentially, it is encouraging to
note that 3QFY10 revenue of RM850.8m was only 1% lower q-o-q despite
a full quarter of competition from Magnum 4D Jackpot (2QFY10: 1
month) and the 5% lower net profit q-o-q was instead due to the
estimated prize payout ratio rising only 1 ppt q-o-q to 63%.
• Let the good times roll again
The 19 sen tax exempt DPS declared thus far represents 79% net DPR of
9MFY10 net profit. To maintain its minimum 75% net DPR policy by year
end, dividends will have to be declared in 4QFY10. We estimate it to be 4
sen tax exempt (FY10: 23 sen tax exempt). New game variant, Supreme
Toto 6/58 will regain market share lost to Magnum 4D Jackpot when it is
launched on 20 Mar 2010. We leave our earnings estimates unchanged.
• Maintain Buy and RM4.91 TP
Our TP is based on end-FY11F (WACC: 7.9%, TGR: 1.5%). We are
encouraged that government is allowing higher yielding games and
awarding more special draws (CY10: 20) to raise revenues rather than
raise gaming taxes and betting duties. We believe more new games or
game variants are on the cards.