星期六, 十二月 15, 2007

UPdates on HOVID

General AnnouncementReference No OD-071211-68296
Submitting Merchant Bank
Company Name
Stock Name
Date Announced
HOVID BERHAD (“Hovid”)Renounceable rights issue of up to 419,144,000 five (5)-year warrants 2008/2013 (“Warrants”) on the basis of one (1) Warrant for every two (2) ordinary shares of RM0.10 each in Hovid held at 5.00 p.m. on 27 December 2007Contents :On behalf of the Board of Directors of Hovid (“Board”), HwangDBS Investment Bank Berhad (formerly known as Hwang-DBS Investment Bank Berhad) (formerly known as Hwang-DBS Securities Berhad) would like to announce that the Board has fixed the exercise price of the Warrants at RM0.37 per share.This announcement is dated 11 December 2007.

星期四, 八月 23, 2007

Can A blog article affects a stock price in the long term

this is what i wrote to Seng(host of well know blog http://fusioninvestor.blogspot.com/

tanhin said...
Dear Seng,

As we all know those reading the blogs especially financial/stock blogs are the
enlightened few and the influences or impacts are rather small.

This cannot be compared to forums/newpaper/business magazine that have
wider readership. But the scenerio is a bit different in the chinese stock blogs
that are few in number and majority of them are not updating frequently.

The bloggers, I would say all come from the same community
http://chinese.cari.com.my/ and they are interlinked to each other very
closely through sms/phone/pm with gathering/meeting every now and then.

Thus whoever write something new will be reposted to the chinese.cari forum
and the blogger will answer query and comments at the forum.

Furthermore some established bloggers also write to the business section of
the chinese newpaper like Guang Ming,Oriental post and others,sometime the
newpaper will also quote the responses/comments from the forum.

Thus there is quite a substantial influence as Chinese cari had 193000 members and at any one time you visit http://chinese2.cari.com.my/myforum/forumdisplay.php?fid=401, the stock/business section there is easily >50 reader and the herd mentality in following the good/famous forummer/blogger is great.Just quote you some establish chinese stock blog:



and of course my not so matured blog

Anyway,influence or no influence, investing or speculating is made by own decision.
Whether or not that person want to do homework, to check the figure,to believe in the analysis,to trust the so called insider information is really up to him,
it is HIS MONEY,
he should be RESPONSIBLE to his actions

This is my simple feedback,hope it helps

August 18, 2007 2:01 PM

星期四, 八月 16, 2007



1)如果你只有10 到20巴仙的可动用资金/或盈利在市场,甚麽都不做是最好的。





星期五, 八月 10, 2007


30 7月 07, 12:13 tanhin28 :

Is the rebound real or just a technical --- no body really know but this time the impact is not that great as what we had experienced in 2.28. So, do you pick up something, sell something or do nothing ?

30 7月 07, 12:16 tanhin28 :

I actually sold my unrelated stocks(what I mean not link to themes of O&G,IDR,Northern Corridor,Steel,construction bla bla bla) for an over expected profit and at the same time also sold some laggards(mainly old dead stocks in IT/semiconductor) and switch to sensational stocks with some fundamental...by doing so I am restructuring my portfolio(oh,talk like a fund manager, haha)and not feeling so much pain.

3 8月 07, 10:48 tanhin28:


6 8月 07, 12:17 tanhin28:

我再次警惕自己:别轻举妄动,便宜的可以更便宜。Not worth to catch a falling knife。甚麽都不做是最好的策列 .

tanhin28: 的确如此。任何rebound都是卖出获利的残余股票。。。下来要玩真的是快进快出--以tips为主。如不能分别tips/讯息真假,还是甚麽都不做最好。

8 8月 07, 13:48 tanhin28:


星期一, 七月 16, 2007

给天堂有路兄说chart pattern

路过,多嘴, 开贴,找苦。

天堂有路网友,你好:你有好师父糊涂兄教还不好好学,不然也可请教 tekyong,tomteohyk,trex,乔帮主,或前辈如 papaya,何老大,chinchai大兄, harimau。。。(太多高手了)指点两招。


gibson Ong(为人尽心尽力,技术出神入化)
the chargingBull(配合时事出击一流)



天堂有路网友,你好。地狱无门你要闯进来, 我只有尽所知说说一二。



1)在牛市里,好股买少见少,多数的valuation都已经projection到2008,2009,太过离普。所以我觉得应该先学投机,而且运用你所掌握的知识,试验性买入一只股,看看是否如你所愿。不停修改,不停做记录(这方面psrngurney做得最多,可以请教他)。我每一宗买入,卖出都写下原因。输钱(输多输少)赚钱(赚多赚少)都要不停的写,写到你终于找到窍门了。要学甚麽投机法呢?你可以向少林兄请教箱型投资法,可以去学candlesticks,moving average,rsi啦,多得数不清。

我有幸遇到贵人学了Dan Zanger的chart pattern


chart pattern 看起来很简单。。。每个股都开起来看,可以用candlestick,可以用线,更容易的是用yahoo的chart来 superimpose,就可以看到完全一样或非常接近的chart pattern。买入不就赚大钱了吗?



先去bursa看看大股东的巴仙率,看到最详细的。。。要注意基金及pledged securities多数都不会卖或在一些时候才会卖(如年终/尾/度假前,也要注意买入的价),扣东扣西,剩下的就是可能流通/买卖的股票。这里很多学问,我还学不会。

然后,做一些volume average 100/50/20/10天的功课,知道甚麽时候量会放大,放小,之后是起还是跌。

星期六, 七月 07, 2007

KOTRA moving to Main board

Higher profile
KOTRA Industries Bhd managing director Jimmy Piong has no qualms admitting that over the years, he has made his fair share of mistakes and wrong assumptions when running the Mesdaq-listed pharmaceutical manufacturer. But that also means that he and the rest of the company's management have learnt a lot in the process.

Now that Kotra is in the midst of transformation, all those lessons may prove valuable in keeping the company on course towards its goal of becoming a world-class player.
The most visible and immediate adjustment is scheduled to happen this week. After completing a six-for-five bonus issue, Malacca-based Kotra will transfer to the main board. When it was listed in October 2000, it became the third Mesdaq counter at a time when Mesdaq was a fledgling exchange that struggled to gain acceptance.

We earn market share by establishing trust via predictability, service, and innovation, says PiongAs with all graduations to the main board, the rationale is to enhance recognition and reputation among investors and business associates. At the same time, a move to the main board can be construed as sign that the company is ready to aim for bigger things. That is certainly the case with Kotra.

Says Piong: “We're going through a wholesale change – in terms of human resource, capacity, systems. The entire company infrastructure is being realigned so that we can become an international player.”

For example, in recent times, the company has recruited key executives, including those who have senior-level experience at multinational pharmaceutical companies, to beef up the talent in areas such as research and development, marketing and exports.

“We have one of the best teams (in the pharmaceutical industry) in the country. We now have the soft skills, the human skills, to do what we want to do,” says Piong.

At the top of the agenda is the plan to significantly broaden its product range and market presence so that it can grab a big slice of the generic drugs business. The idea is for Kotra to be the industry's equivalent of a supermarket, but Piong prefers the term “Harrods for pharmaceutical products”.

He adds, “I want a situation where it's enough for a doctor to deal with just Kotra. The aim is to have at least one product for every segment, to provide a one-stop centre for our customers.”
Kotra has almost 170 products registered with the National Pharmaceutical Controls Board. The over-the-counter (OTC) business has always been the mainstay of the company, but its branded generic products (which are dispensed with prescriptions) are growing in significance.
In FY02, generics accounted for 13% of Kotra's turnover. The contribution more than doubled to 28% in FY06.

Piong says this reflects the company's efforts to widen its revenue base. “The generics business is more resilient and recurrent. Also, the manufacturing of generics is more sophisticated and that helps us climb up the value chain,” he explains.

The term “generics” may suggest that consumers are not too bothered about brands when it comes to such products and that they tend to opt for the lowest-priced ones, but Piong believes that there is room for Kotra to establish an edge.

He says, “We don't believe in competing on price; our products are not the cheapest. We focus on strategic positioning. We earn market share by establishing trust via predictability, service and innovation.”

Kotra subscribes to the power of branding. It should know. After all, the Appeton name is among the company's biggest assets and is recognised outside Malaysia as well. Appeton began in 1989 as a single product, that is, a tonic to help children gain weight, but it is now an umbrella brand for Kotra's health supplements.

However, it was not at all an overnight triumph. “It took us many, many years to establish the brand. The first 10 years was a lot of trial and error. It taught us about how to be more prudent and more resistant to slip-ups,” Piong recalls.

“Advertising was a luxury back then. Most of the money went towards infrastructure and assets. The turning point was when we had sufficient funds to spend on advertising and promotions. Without brand-building, you cannot be somebody.”

Nevertheless, there is also the question of backing up the brand promise. “You can't have the branding and advertising without good products and innovation,” Piong points out, adding that emphasis on research and development is part of Kotra's game plan.

Also, he says, a sturdy and wide distribution network must be in place. He adds that Kotra has an advantage because it distributes its own products, thus giving it control and access to customer information.

Kotra also plans to penetrate overseas markets aggressively. It already has its products in 11 countries, and the next targets are Kuwait, Thailand and the Philippines. Piong says the company intends to go into 12 other countries and the introduction of the products is in various stages of submission, registration and approvals.

He adds that exporting pharmaceutical products is a complex matter because of the different regulatory frameworks and market conditions.

“It's a very tricky thing. Many people have failed when they ventured abroad. The challenge is not to bulldoze your way through. Our export business will not be driven by our representatives in the foreign countries. It will be driven by our head office,” he explains.

“You really have to get involved in market development. It takes a longer time to see results but it's worth it. We don't just export our products; we provide our marketing expertise as well.”
Another major project for Kotra is a new factory in Malacca that will be built in three phases, and will axpand Kotra's current capacity by up to 10 times. The first phase will cost about RM65mil, including for the machinery. The plant is expected to commence operations in the beginning of FY09.

Piong says it will be the most modern pharmaceutical production facility in the country. “The whole idea is to build a centre of manufacturing excellence,” he adds

星期六, 六月 16, 2007

Update on YLI

From Star Bizweek 16.6.2007


One man’s foray
EYEBROWS were raised at the end of last week when Tan Sri Syed Mohd Yusof Syed Nasir emerged as the controlling shareholder in pipemaker YLI Holdings Bhd following the acquisition of a 30% stake in the company from its founders, the Loh family.
Most analysts expressed surprise at the sale, which saw the Loh family's stake in Penang-based YLI, held via Fuji Fusion Sdn Bhd, reduced to 10%.
The 29.6 million shares acquired by Syed Yusof were priced at RM86mil, or RM2.90 per share. (why the sale of big stake 30% at such a low price with no premium?a willing sale and willing buy with strategic partnership in growing the business is the most likely reason)
“Syed Yusof is probably aware of the potential high demand for YLI's products,” says an analyst, who is not alone in opining that the good times are set to roll for YLI.
“YLI's earnings are poised to catapult on the back of the surge in demand for ductile iron (DI) pipes with a full-scale revival of water projects under the 9th Malaysia Plan (9MP), as well as the acceleration of pipe replacement activities at Syarikan Bekalan Air Selangor (Syabas),” says a bank-backed research house. It has a fair value of RM3.59 for the counter and is maintaining its outperform recommendation, stating its belief that the current share price has yet to fully reflect the company's fundamentals.
In fact, most analysts have earmarked YLI as a potential beneficiary of rising spending on non-revenue water (NRW) in Selangor as well as the Government's allocation for repair and replacement of pipes in the water sector, with some indicating that this may be part of the rationale behind Syed Yusof's entry into the company. (this potential is very real and soon)
The former activity has seen Syabas step up its pipe replacement programme in a bid to reduce its NRW to 27.78%, thereby allowing it to qualify for the next tariff hike of 37% that is set for 2009.
As OSK Research points out, Syabas' estimated annual capital expenditure is set to top the RM600mil mark over the next three years. With 80% of that figure allocated for pipe replacement, the research house estimates that the annual cost of purchasing water pipes will be at least RM120mil to RM150mil. (increase of Rm 30 mil if buy all the ductile iron pipe measuring less than 700mm from YLI--the preferred pipe to use)
As for the latter, Energy, Water and Communications Minister Datuk Seri Dr Lim Keng Yaik has recently announced an allocation of RM2bil that will be allocated specifically to rehabilitate and replace old water pipes.
OSK feels this may see a continued escalation of demand for DI pipes from other states, prompting the research house to revise its projected utilisation rate for YLI's products from 62% to 70% in FY08 and 65% to 75% in FY09.
Speaking of its products, YLI is regarded as one of the two largest DI water pipe manufacturers in the country.
An analyst is of the opinion that this will stand the company in good stead, as the duopoly of YLI and Engtex will allow for the superior pricing power of players in the DI pipe sector.
According to the bank-backed research house, DI pipes are likely to be preferred over other varieties such as mild steel, polyethylene and PVC pipes due to its strength, durability, corrosion resistance and long life. In other words, just the qualities an NRW-based initiative would be looking for.
By all accounts, Syed Yusof's entry is set to considerably raise YLI's profile, as the man whom Forbes lists as being the 25th richest man in Malaysia has earned a reputation as a canny investor over the years. (he has the reputation of buying undervalued stocks and cashing them out at a premium.....He bought YLI from Loh family at 2.90 (PE of only 15)at the low end of YLI four year historical PE band of 11-29 times , thus chances for him to exit at present price of ~3.10 unlikely)
As the former chairman of Southern Bank, he was a prominent figure in its drawn-out takeover by Bumiputra-Commerce Holdings Bhd (BCHB).
His name was again splashed across headlines last year during a tussle over Landmarks Bhd.
Although control of both companies eventually went to other parties, Syed Yusof's prior investments in the two proved profitable in the long run.
Syed Yusof is currently the chairman of Concorde Hotels and Resorts (M) Sdn Bhd, while his other business involvements include the Hard Rock Cafe chain and its upcoming hotel in Penang, as well as the Four Seasons Hotel in Kuala Lumpur.
With this in mind, analysts are suggesting that Syed Yusof's presence, along with YLI's newly-raised profile, could help enhance the company's chances of winning DI pipe supply contracts from the public sector, given that it is now a Bumiputra-controlled company.
But is he in it for the long haul? Recent reports have Aseambankers saying that Syed Yusof will remain a strategic investor in YLI, while a company official has been quoted as expecting its current operations to continue with no changes in management.
Likewise, the bank-backed research house understands that the company's day-to-day operations will remain in the hands of the experts, namely the Loh family. ( so the expert/founder still managing the company,good!)
YLI also has a presence in China via its wholly-owned subsidiary Zhangzhou YLI Electro-Metallurgy Co Ltd, which produces petroleum coke.
In addition, YLI made its maiden foray into the water supply business when its 37%-owned associate Pinang Water Ltd successfully completed its first project, the Yuan He Water Treatment Plant in Yichun City, which is located in China's Jiangxi province.
Undertaken with PBA Holdings Bhd and Ranhill Utilities Bhd subsidiary Ranhill KWI Sdn Bhd, the project is not expected to be an immediate earnings contributor, but is part of the strategic steps that YLI is taking to diversify its long-term revenue streams. (YLI still not aggressively venturing abroad and depends heavily on local business thus tie up with the politically linked Syed Yusof will be of good help )
YLI recorded a net profit of RM14mil on the back of RM123.6mil in revenue during the financial year ended March 2007 (FY07), up from RM12.9mil and RM100.1mil respectively from FY06
(rising price of core(the raw material for making pipe) had squeeze the profit margin of YLI and with the profit margin of only 11-12%, increase in the revenue is essential and immediate thing to do though YLI sit on comfortable cash of~ RM 50 mil with no debt)

Report from OSK

FYE mar (rm) FY05 FY 06 FY07 FY08f FY09f
Total Revenue 98.8 100.1 123.6 160.1 171.1
Net Profit 14.8 12.9 14.0 19.9 21.4
% chg YoY (30.0) (13.1) 9.0 42.0 7.7
Consensus EPS (sen) - - 20.9 26.4 -
EPS (sen) 15.0 13.1 14.2 20.2 21.8
Gross DPS (sen) 7.0 7.0 7.0 9.7 10.3
Gross Div. Yield (%) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.8 2.9
PER (x) 23.3 26.8 24.6 17.3 16.1
P/BV (x) 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.3 15.0 11.4 9.2 0.0
ROE (%) 8.9 7.3 7.6 10.2 10.4
ROA (%) 8.2 6.7 7.0 9.4 9.6


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